Comments are brief this morning as the rest of this week will see a slew of data released, and we will be paying close attention as most of it is important.
The Fed will announce their rate decision on Wednesday, a heavily anticipated number where the expectations have change a lot over the past two weeks. Financial press headlines are now saying we'll see 25bps and a pause.
Back looking GDP will be announced, PCE inflation data and most importantly, Friday will have the payrolls numbers to focus on. There will of course be plenty of accompanying commentary as the week goes on.
This morning, the curve is steepening, as long bonds are lower and short bonds are flat. The while the entire curve has been selling off significantly lately, the longer end looks to have broken down recently. Not having benefited from the fear spike that we saw in the two years, the 30s have been equally weak recently. Since hitting a recent high on March 21st @ 4.16%, the 30 year treasury has more or less dropped straight down to its current 4.62%. The long bond is mostly a market indicator of long term inflation expectations, and persistently high food and energy prices have had the market selling off the relatively scarce bonds. For the technicians, today is very important as the long bond is testing its 200 day moving avg @ 4.60%
Japan bonds are steady after diving on Friday's inflation report. The ten year JGB is now quoted @ 1.61%