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Daily Market Commentary

 Finally there is some data for the market to focus on, rather than swaying through the week on rumour and global equities.  Also Bernanke is speaking in Wyoming.  If the volume stays as light as it has been this week, we could be in for a volatile trading session, like the one we saw yesterday.  Curve flattening and general selling saw the Canada ten year yield jump up to 4.37% yesterday. 

 

 

Numbers this morning, including US GDP for Q2 came in at 4% annualized.  Weekly jobless claims numbers also ticked up slightly, now trending higher for several weeks in a row (see last Thursday's FI snapshot for a chart).  None of these jobless claims numbers has been a blowout, and by historical standards they are still very low, but the trend is changing and it certainly appears to be bottoming.  We are watching this closely as JOBS is the most important part of the economy right now.  Jobs are currently the only thing in the way of pure carnage in the housing and consumer spending markets in the US.  America is still well employed, but we will watch this number closely for advanced indication of softer retail sales and further home price declines.  (Chart of Weekly Claims is attached in the Daily FI Snapshot)

 

 

Canada's current account balance continues to grow, coming in at $8.4B.  Although this is a backwards looking number, we would have expected a jump in the CAD$ after this surprise was released.  We did not get it, as the CAD$ is trading near it's closing levels of yesterday.  Another surprise was the huge spike in raw materials prices in Canada.  Although, this is a long way from consumer prices, it is an inflationary read... bet you didn't think you'd be reading about inflation lately!

 



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