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Daily Market Commentary

Yesterday's US leading indicators came out as expect at 0.3%.  Combined with a stronger reading on the Philadelphia Fed index, and the forecast of a soft landing for the US economy seems to be intact.  The broad trend on the LEI appears to be forming a bottom around the 0% as it did in the mid-nineties slowdown.  We saw some pretty significant steepening of the yield curve yesterday following this data, as it appears to be discounting a recovery and pricing in appropriate term risk, which is currently more or less absent from the market. (See chart in Daily FI Snapshot)


  Without any data out this morning, we'd expect trading on this summer Friday to be very light and taper off as the day goes on.  Bonds are starting the day slightly lower, as the Ten year yield creeps towards 5.20% and 4.70% in Canada.


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